Search results for "Real Options"
showing 10 items of 16 documents
An alliance timing game under real options in biopharmaceutical industry
2014
Biopharmaceutical alliances and competition: a real options game approach
2013
Value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates
2009
The article uses a real options valuation model with stochastic freight rates to investigate market efficiency and the economics of switching between the dry bulk and the tanker markets in international shipping. A dry bulk carrier is replaced with a tanker when the expected net present value of such a switch is optimal from a real options based decision rule. Depending on the development of the markets a reversal may take place later. The cost and demand parameters upon which the decisions to switch are made, including the stochastic characteristics of freight rates, are estimated from an empirical analysis that is updated every week throughout a 12-year time period from 1993 to 2005. The …
Risky choices in strategic environments: An experimental investigation of a real options game
2019
Managers frequently make decisions under conditions of fundamental uncertainty due the stochastic nature of the outcomes and competitive rivalry. In this study, we experimentally test a theoretical model under fundamental uncertainty and competitive rivalry by designing a sequential interaction game between two players. The first mover can decide either to choose a sure outcome that assigns a risky outcome to the second mover or to pass the decision to the second mover. If the second player gets the chance to decide, she can choose between a sure outcome, conditioned by the assignment of a risky payoff to the first mover, or the sharing of the risky outcome with the first mover. We then int…
A real options game of alliance timing decisions in biopharmaceutical research and development
2017
Abstract In this article we examine the alliance timing trade-off facing both pharmaceutical and biotech firms in a stochastic and competitive environment. Specifically, we introduce a real options game (ROG), where a pharmaceutical company can choose between two competing biotech firms by sequentially offering a licensing deal early or late in the new drug development process. We find that, when the alliance raises the drug market value significantly, the agreement is signed late in the drug development process. This suggests that the postponement effect implied by the use of real options prevails over the biotech firms’ competition effect, which would instead play in favor of an early agr…
Circular Economy and Value Creation: Sustainable Finance with a Real Options Approach
2021
This paper presents a methodological proposal that integrates the circular economy concept and financial valuation through real options analysis. The Value Hill model of a circular economy provides a representation of the course followed by the value of an asset. Specifically, after the primary use, the life of an asset may be extended by going through four phases: the 4R phases (Reuse, Refurbish, Remanufacture and Recycle). Financial valuation allows us to quantify value creation from firms’ asset circularity under uncertainty, modelled by binomial trees. Furthermore, the 4R phases are valued as real options by applying no-arbitrage opportunity arguments. The major contribution of this pap…
Real Options Analysis (ROA)opens innovation: the biopharmaceutical case
2012
An user friendly Real Options based Model to Optimize Pharmaceutical R&D Portfolio
2013
Pharmaceutical industry pays great attention to its R&D process because it is a long, dynamic, very expensive, and uncertain process. On the other hand this process can be modelled as a step-wise process and each stage allows to achieve better information and generally lower uncertainty. In order to build up the best portfolio a tool able to capture the intrinsic flexible nature of the process should be selected: real options analysis has this characteristic but as widely demonstrated in literature, is narrowed to very limited cases because its perceived complexity. Basing on OptFolio, a model available in literature, this paper proposes an user friendly programming model based on Real Opti…
Open innovation: A real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical R&D
2014
The pharmaceutical landscape has changed, and new business models, based on alliances, are increasingly being adopted in this industry. Biotechnology advances have pushed this development, and pooling complementary resources coming from incumbents and newcomers is a key skill to succeed: these are the premises for a quick spread of the open innovation (OI) paradigm in this industry. R&D portfolio selection needs R&D project evaluation, and Real Options Analysis (ROA) is acknowledged as a powerful tool to evaluate uncertain projects that have an intrinsic flexibility. The present research aims to foster the use of ROA in the OI field in order to encourage firms to undertake this innovation mode…
A real options based model to select a balanced R&D portfolio
2011
The R&D process in the pharmaceutical industry has a long and dynamic life then it is an ideal field of application for ROA. Actually, ROA implementation, as widely demonstrated in literature, is narrowed to very limited cases because its perceived complexity. This research wants to suggest a simplified method, respect the ones available in literature, that could foster the use of ROA: we built up an integer linear programming model, based on a model available in literature, useful for selecting a balanced R&D portfolio from a set of candidate drugs. The model has been tested through a case study.